2019_03_19 — “What A Difference A Year Makes, Or Does It?”

What A Difference A Year Makes, Or Does It?

Summary

  • North Korea continues to be more of a Chinese pawn than a potential U.S. ally.
  • China will grab headlines for the next couple decades, and rightfully so.
  • The euro area is cementing its position as a post-growth empire.
  • Brexit should finally be over by this time next year; the European Union has more to lose.
  • Japan is as steady and exciting as a boulder, until it decides to shift and rattle the environment.
Credit: Image and graphics by Michael Ashley
  • North Korea has become (or has been for a while) a denuclearization pawn in a multiparty negotiation to shift regional clout between China and the U.S. North Korea is likely to open itself further to Chinese investment as Kim seeks to bolster his governing authority through a stronger economy that pleases his party leaders and senior lieutenants.
  • With officially only five communist countries remaining in the world — China, Cuba, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam — politically and strategically, China would not like to see North Korea (which lies along its border) fall strongly under U.S. (or South Korean) influence. [Note: Technically, Venezuela is a federal presidential republic.]

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Michael Ashley Schulman

Michael Ashley Schulman

Avid traveler and art fan, also Partner & Chief Investment Officer @Running Point Capital, a multifamily office and ultra high-net-worth money-management firm