2021_03_25 — “Exciting Numbers! Too Much of a Good Thing Can Be Unsettling”

SYNOPSIS: U.S. business spending has recovered from the shock of pandemic shutdowns. Consumers have more savings, higher incomes, and more pent-up demand than a year ago. The Federal Reserve is committed to an easy monetary policy. Global growth is recovering on the back of government largesse and vaccination rollouts around the world. This environment should continue to provide attractive opportunities in illiquid, alternative, or private investments: real estate, venture capital, growth equity, and private credit. Additionally, although a Roaring ’20s theme is our base case long-term economic scenario, temporary party crashers will include inflation and fear of inflation from overstimulation of the economy, along with a host of other risks.

Exciting Numbers! Too Much of a Good Thing Can Be Unsettling

Credit: Collage and graphics by Michael Ashley

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