The Terrible Twos, 2022 — Outlook for the Year Ahead

This is our latest Insight:

2022, The Terrible Twos — Outlook for the Year Ahead

SUMMARY

  • Wobbles: 2022 will be akin to the terrible twos, with short-term political, monetary, and economic wobbles on the path toward long-term progress
  • Unwind: No central bank has ever unwound $8.5 trillion of stimulus, and experience with raising interest rates from 0% is limited
  • Higher rates: The Fed will likely raise short-term interest rates to normalize policy, but that alone won’t stem inflation — Inflation will dampen when supply chain and labor bottlenecks ease
  • StayFlation: Inflation will moderate but remain higher than what we’ve had over the last dozen years — in other words, it is here to stay — in fact, the Fed may use economic growth and inflation to try to save the government from its massive debt burden by inflating it away
  • Estates: Tax, estate, and financial plan preparedness are key to moving beyond the investment outlook and having meaningful family office style preparedness and resiliency
  • Illiquids: Consider investment structures that take advantage of market uncertainty and inflationary trends
  • Roaring 20s: Overall, corporations and consumers have a ton of cash and huge pent-up demand; a wealth and productivity effect is in place that should drive socioeconomic growth over the long-term
Credit: Photo and graphics by Michael Ashley

DETAILS

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

ENDNOTES

Credit: Photo and graphics by Michael Ashley

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Avid traveler and art fan, also Partner & Chief Investment Officer @Running Point Capital, a multifamily office and ultra high-net-worth money-management firm

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Michael Ashley Schulman

Michael Ashley Schulman

Avid traveler and art fan, also Partner & Chief Investment Officer @Running Point Capital, a multifamily office and ultra high-net-worth money-management firm

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